Train the doctors we've already paid for

We were promised a career. The government's own report quietly took it back.

We spent six years and hundreds of thousands of public dollars becoming doctors. Now the government's own 2026 workforce report says most of us will wait close to a decade to train as specialists. The queue behind us more than doubles by 2048. It doesn't have to be this way.

Students & doctors: take action Patients & public: see the crisis
52% → 33%
The share of junior doctors who move into specialty training each year. Still falling fast.
5,717 vs 3,110
Overseas-trained doctors approved last year versus domestic graduates. We're importing past a queue of our own making.
38,222
Junior doctors stuck waiting for training by 2048 if nothing changes. More than double today's queue.
What's actually happening

The bottleneck is real. It's in the government's own data.

Australia trains more medical students than ever. The number of specialty training places has barely moved. So a growing crowd of fully-qualified junior doctors competes for a near-static number of places. Progression into training has already fallen from 52% a year to 33%. The government's own modelling says it could reach 15% by 2048.

Every year, Australia registers more international medical graduates than it graduates domestic doctors. The number of training places stays flat.

Stacked bar chart, 2023 to 2025: domestic graduates plus international medical graduates each year both exceed the roughly 5,700 flat specialty training intake line.

This is not about individual international doctors. They are our colleagues and our friends. Rural Australia depends on them. Our target is a policy choice: a government that recruits past a queue of graduates it already paid to train, instead of building the training places that would let everyone through. The fair fix sends overseas recruitment where it is genuinely needed. It does not punish the doctors already here.

The modelling

One policy choice. Two very different futures.

The NSWMSC workforce model runs the government's own numbers forward under two scenarios: do nothing, or prioritise the graduates we've already trained (with overseas recruitment directed to real need). These are illustrative projections from that model.

The training queue clears by 2029

Junior doctors waiting for specialty training, 2025–2048.
Line chart: under do-nothing the queue rises to 38,222 by 2048; under prioritisation it falls below the 2:1 threshold by 2029 and drains toward zero.

Stop ageing in limbo

Postgraduate year at entry to specialty training.
Line chart: under do-nothing, postgraduate year at entry climbs toward PGY 8; under prioritisation it falls to PGY 2, the minimum eligible year, by about 2031.
Explore the model yourself →
The human cost

This queue has faces. These are ours.

Behind every figure is a doctor who did everything right and is still waiting. Here is what the bottleneck feels like from inside it.

"[Placeholder quote - e.g. a PGY6 who has applied three times and is now planning to move interstate.]"
[Name or "Anonymous"]
[Specialty aspiration] · [Medical school / hospital] · PGY[x]
"[Placeholder quote - e.g. a final-year student watching the doctors ahead of them stall, wondering if medicine in NSW is worth staying for.]"
[Name or "Anonymous"]
[Year] · [Medical school]
"[Placeholder quote - e.g. a junior doctor holding the system together in an unaccredited role that counts for nothing toward training.]"
[Name or "Anonymous"]
[Role] · [Hospital / region]
Placeholder: replace with real (named or anonymised) testimonials from NSW students and junior doctors - a short quote, their stage of training, and optionally a photo. This section is the single biggest thing that will move media and MPs.
It has already been done

The UK faced exactly this. It fixed it in one cycle.

Britain hit the same wall. Too many home-grown graduates. Too few training posts. Overseas recruitment filling the gap. Then it changed one rule: prioritise home-trained doctors, and direct overseas recruitment to genuine need. In a single round of applications, competition ratios halved.

98%of posts went to prioritised doctors after the reform, up from 72%. Ratios roughly halved in one cycle.
What we're calling for

Five changes that would clear the queue.

ASK 01

A domestic-graduate prioritisation law

Give the doctors Australia already trained first access to specialty training places. Judged on where they trained, never their nationality. Everyone already practising here stays fully protected. Modelled on the UK reform.

ASK 02

~1,150 more training places a year

Expand accredited specialty training capacity so more qualified graduates can actually progress, rather than stacking up behind a static gate.

ASK 03

Direct overseas recruitment to genuine need

Send international recruitment to the rural and area-of-need roles that actually need filling. Supplement our workforce. Don't substitute for training our own.

ASK 04

Pause new medical schools

Hold off on new medical schools until training capacity catches up. More graduates into a blocked pipeline just widens the bottleneck.

ASK 05

Bring back national workforce planning

Restore independent national medical workforce planning, so a bottleneck like this can never be allowed to build again.

Backed by the profession

Doctors' organisations stand with us.

Placeholder: add endorsement logos or quotes (e.g. AMA NSW, ASMOF NSW, other bodies you've written to) and links to any press coverage.

This is a choice. Help us make sure it's the right one.

Add your name to the open letter, explore the modelling, and share the campaign. It's how a queue that doubles by 2048 becomes a queue that clears by 2029.

Sign the open letter Explore the model